The new leadership, which has come into power during and after the Arab Spring/Winter, is less inclined to be at the mercy of Washington or Western powers. Below the surface the facts on the ground are however very much different.

For North African powers the same is still in place, as Egypt is military-economically linked to the Western system. Officially, all Arab Gulf states are very much linked to Washington, as the latter is still the major source of security, military cooperation and access to money markets. The coming weeks a major reshuffling of power can be put in place, as US president Biden’s major trip to the Middle East is expected to re-open some of the currently closed doors in the region. It seems that Washington, London and Brussels, continue to believe their own story lines about the historic links between the Arab powers in the Gulf or North Africa, without recognizing that powers have shifted dramatically. China’s push to fill the gap left by Western companies in Iraq, Iran and increasingly Russia, is not yet recognized as a potential threat to Western interests. China, India and Russia however are still focusing on expanding their own position inside of the Middle East, as shown by continuing diplomatic meetings in Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. While Washington, London and Brussels, are focusing on Moscow’s ongoing military-economic operations in the heart of Europe, US president Biden’s strategies are split between Europe and Asia, while fighting to regain some political momentum at home, the Middle East is out of sight for most.

Global power projections are changing dramatically, as the Russian war on Ukraine continues, Western countries are hit by a possible doomsday scenario in the upcoming winter as natural gas shortages are becoming a possible reality, and Asian powers are using the current volatility to increase their own global power projections.

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